Consolidation, liquidity and selective public-market momentum set the tone for 2026 

Global sentiment towards technology strengthened in 2025, led by continued investment in AI-driven themes across software, infrastructure and data. While AI remained a primary driver of large capital flows, recovery across non-AI subsectors was more measured. Investors increasingly prioritised durable economics and capital efficiency, creating clearer separation between market leaders and the broader cohort.

After several subdued years, 2025 marked a meaningful reopening of the US initial public offering (IPO) market. The successful listing of AI cloud infrastructure firm CoreWeave provided an early signal that public exits were again viable for high-growth businesses. Later in the year, design software company Figma’s IPO reinforced improving investor appetite and helped refresh valuation benchmarks for private markets. Together, these selective but significant transactions improved confidence in exit pathways heading into 2026.

Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity also accelerated through 2025 as confidence and financing conditions improved. According to Bain & Company, global M&A value rose by approximately 40% in 2025 when compared to 2024, with technology-related transactions rising by more than 70%.¹ This marked the second consecutive year of recovery, supported by stabilising interest rates and renewed strategic and sponsor-led activity. Consolidation remained a key driver of value creation across software, tech-enabled services, industrial technology and healthcare in 2025, and we expect sustained M&A momentum to continue into 2026 as businesses seek scale and operating leverage.

With IPO and trade-sale activity still below historical averages, the secondaries market remained central to creating liquidity for investors. Global secondaries volume was on track to reach ~US$220 billion in 2025, up from ~US$160 billion in 2024.² Both limited partner (LP)-led transactions and general partner (GP)-led continuation vehicles continued to expand as investors sought liquidity and portfolio flexibility. Discounts narrowed through 2025 as price discovery improved and public comparables strengthened.

In Australia, IPO and exit activity continued to lag the US through 2025, with the domestic listing window largely closed for growth-oriented companies. Assuming improving global conditions and stabilising market fundamentals, we believe this window will reopen in 2026 providing a more constructive backdrop for local private company exits across both IPOs and trade sales.

Within this context, in 2026 we see increasing opportunity for capital deployment in Australian lower-mid market technology and technology-enabled businesses, as AI and technology impact all industries and the small-medium sized business succession wave continues in Australia.